Tri-Valley Market Update: One Market, Two Different Answers

If you have been reading headlines about the Tri-Valley housing market this summer, you have probably seen two stories that seem to contradict each other. One says prices are falling. The other says homes are still selling fast and at full price.

Both are accurate. They are just describing different halves of the same market.

Here is what the data actually shows, and what it means depending on whether you are buying or selling right now.

The numbers, four cities side by side

All figures below are from Redfin, covering the three months ending May 2026 — the most recent complete closed-sale data available as of early August. These are closed transactions, not asking prices.

City	Median sale price	YoY	Days on market	Sale-to-list
San Ramon	$1,574,558	−2.5%	14 days	99.6%
Pleasanton	$1,494,106	−11.3%	21 days	100.3%
Dublin	$1,324,208	+0.3%	20 days	99.7%
Livermore	$1,149,312	−4.2%	11 days	101.6%

Source: Redfin city market data, three months ending May 2026.

Why Pleasanton's "11% drop" is not what it sounds like

That −11.3% number is the one that makes people nervous, so it is worth slowing down on.

In the same period that Pleasanton's median sale price fell 11.3%, the average Pleasanton home sold for 100.3% of its list price — slightly above asking, and up 0.2 points from a year ago. Homes there received an average of three offers.

Those two facts cannot both describe falling home values. A market where sellers are getting full price and multiple offers is not a market where buyers have gained the upper hand.

What actually happened is a change in what sold, not what homes are worth. Pleasanton closed 134 sales in May, down from 161 a year earlier. The sales that disappeared were disproportionately at the top of the market. When fewer $2.5M homes trade and the same number of $1.4M homes trade, the median falls — even if no individual homeowner lost a dollar.

The median tells you about the mix of homes that sold. Sale-to-list tells you about pricing power. Right now those two numbers are pointing in opposite directions, and only one of them is about your house.

The real split is price band, not city

The most useful way to read the Tri-Valley right now is not Pleasanton versus Dublin versus Livermore. It is above roughly $2M versus below it.

Below about $1.6M, the market is genuinely competitive. Livermore is closing at 101.6% of list in 11 days. San Ramon is moving in 14. Dublin and Pleasanton are both around three weeks with sale-to-list right at 100%. Well-prepared homes in this band are still drawing multiple offers.

Above about $2M, the market has thinned considerably. Buyer pools get small quickly at the upper end, and the buyers who remain are patient, well-informed, and unwilling to reach. Days on market stretch from weeks into months. This is where nearly all of the visible slowdown lives.

In my own transactions this summer, every closing was in the Tri-Valley below the $2M line, and each one closed within its expected window. The upper-end listings I am tracking have taken meaningfully longer to find their buyer. Same market, same month, two completely different experiences.

Rates are the pressure underneath all of it

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.66% for the week of July 30, 2026, up from 6.58% the week before.

That eight-basis-point move sounds trivial, and on a single payment it nearly is. What matters more is the direction and what it does to buyer psychology. Rates drifting up in the middle of summer removes the "wait for fall" argument that some buyers have been leaning on, and it quietly trims the top of everyone's approval range. A buyer approved for $1.5M in the spring may be shopping at $1.45M now without having changed anything about their finances.

It also explains part of the volume decline. Fewer move-up sellers are willing to trade a low existing rate for a 6.66% one, which keeps inventory tighter than the price data alone would suggest.

If you are selling this fall

• Ignore the citywide median when you price. It is describing which homes sold, not what yours is worth. Price against your closest comps: same neighborhood, similar condition, similar lot, closed in the last 60–90 days.
• The launch window still decides the outcome. Sale-to-list near 100% across all four cities means correctly-priced homes are getting full value. That advantage is spent in the first ten days. Homes that launch high and reduce later are the ones sitting.
• If you are above $2M, plan for a longer runway. Not a lower price necessarily — a longer timeline, better preparation, and a real marketing plan. The buyer exists. Finding them takes longer than it did two years ago.
• Condition is doing more work than it used to. Price per square foot fell 5.2% in Pleasanton and 4.6% in Dublin year over year while sale-to-list held. Buyers are still paying full ask — they are just being more selective about which homes they will pay it on.

If you are buying this fall

• Do not expect to negotiate hard under $1.6M. The data does not support it. You are competing, and homes in this band are closing at or above asking within three weeks.
• Do expect real leverage above $2M. Longer days on market means room to negotiate on price, credits, and terms — the kind of leverage that did not exist in this segment in 2024.
• Watch days on market, not list price. A home that has been sitting 45 days in a market with a 20-day median is telling you something specific, and it is usually about the original list price rather than the home.
• Volume is down, which means less competition than headlines suggest. Both Pleasanton and Dublin closed fewer sales this May than last. Fewer transactions means fewer competing buyers at any given open house.

What I would watch between now and October

Three things will tell us where the Tri-Valley goes into the fall. First, whether sale-to-list holds near 100% as summer inventory clears — if that number starts slipping below 98%, that is the first real evidence of softening at the mid-tier. Second, whether rates hold in the mid-6s or push through 7%, which would compress buying power further. Third, whether the upper end starts trading again, which would pull the medians back up and generate a round of "prices are recovering" headlines that will be just as misleading as this summer's crash headlines.

None of that changes what you should do if you are making a decision in the next 90 days. Price correctly, prepare properly, and look at the comps that actually match your home instead of the number in the headline.

Want the read on your specific home?

Citywide data is context. It is not a valuation. What your Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, or Livermore home is worth depends on your neighborhood, school assignment, lot, condition, floor plan, and what is actively competing with you the week you go live.

If you are thinking about selling in the next six months, or buying and trying to figure out where your money goes furthest right now, reach out and I will put together a property-specific read — real comps, honest pricing range, and a straight answer about timing.